Category: Observations

I sometimes see an article talking about how pro poker players can make good stock traders because they can take losses when they realize the game was tougher than they thought. They don’t try to “get even”. But that strategy does not extend to buying stocks because your losses, while similarly implying that your initial… Continue reading Emotions Depend More on “Acceleration” Than “Speed”

I always kind of knew it since I could never stand depending on people, even “experts”, since I know how many screw up. That even included airline pilots, which was why I was never comfortable flying even though I knew the odds. Thus, when it became necessary to fly in a small private jet. I… Continue reading Interesting Evidence That I am a Control Freak.

Hopefully you get that those TV commercials that promise that you will receive something extra if you call within ten minutes, will still give it to you even if you call later. One reason is that there is usually no way they know which ad you’re responding to. And if you reply that it’s illegal… Continue reading Call in The Next Ten Minutes/ Denying the Antecedent.

Do you see it? If you are the victim of a dishonest doctor who takes advantage of your susceptibility, a pervert outside your window, or a thief/forger who steals the baseball and replaces it with a counterfeit, you are only harmed if someone tells you it happened. Should they? No further explanation needed. All comments… Continue reading The Odd Connection Between Placebos, Peeping Toms and Babe Ruth Autographed Baseballs. 

Gamblers often bet on things where the outcome has already occurred. Perhaps a pretty lady is walking by, and they bet on whether she is married. The bet may involve odds as well. So, what does it mean if someone says that he thinks it is 70% that she is married? She either is or… Continue reading The Two Kinds of Probability

Our hotel gave its guests a choice of one of five gifts. One became unavailable. Two new possibilities were tested for guest preference. But they were erroneously tested against each other. That procedure might pick a gift that was almost always 2nd choice among the five while the other prospective gift might be usually fifth… Continue reading Ill Conceived Market Research

Why else do you think your TV is infested with ads for ED pills, memory enhancements, and other vitamin type pills that that the FDA is not allowed to comment on? At least 30% of buyers will give them a good review because of the strange tendency of the brain to produce real physical effects… Continue reading Commercials That Depend on the Placebo Effect

They don’t have to coincide exactly with the real-world scenario they are shining a light on. Especially if the differences between the hypothetical and what it is modelling are recognized and adjusted for. No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.