Category: Math/Gambling

No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

2,3, and 12 are no longer automatic losers. Eleven is no longer an automatic winner. They are all “points”. Many think that a pass line bettor is given more than is taken away. But 2 and 12 only move up from zero to 1/7. 3 goes from 0 to 25%. Meanwhile 11 moves down from… Continue reading The Simple Math That Proves “Crapless” Craps is Worse

For instance, it’s five times easier for an 80% shot to go 19 for 20 than 20 for 20. That’s why John Wooden is probably the best coach of all time despite having the best talent. And why no one will ever top Joe Dimaggio’s hitting streak. No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

Whether it be actual money or perhaps a normally negative EV play early in a poker hand that will make your opponent give away his hand, you should have an idea of the correct price. It is the weighted average of the various gains you achieve compared to your EV had you not known anything.… Continue reading Paying for Info

An extremely serious error made even by “experts”, that a few people are trying to explain to the world. If a drug on trial beats the 95% criteria, it means the older drug or placebo tested against it did so much worse that there is only a 5% probability that the trial would come out… Continue reading Passing 95% Confidence Criteria Doesn’t Make You 95%

Two Examples: #1. We flip coins for a dollar a flip. I start with $2, and you start with one. Algebra tells us that I will bust you twice as often as you bust me. Pure logic points out that this must be so since fair bets must break even if we do this every… Continue reading Math Questions That Need Almost No Math.

9. The Decision Favored to Be Wrong May Be Right. That can happen if that alternative has a much larger upside, a much smaller downside, or if it can be reversed if going poorly while the other decision(s) can’t. 17. Math Questions That Need Almost No Math. Two Examples: #1. We flip coins for a… Continue reading Math/Gambling

That can happen if that alternative has a much larger upside, a much smaller downside, or if it can be reversed if going poorly while the other decision(s) can’t. No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.