Category: Math/Gambling

We had a year-long cheap buy-in slot tournament that culminated in four finalists shooting for prizes of 10K, 20K, 50K and a million dollars on the final round. They agreed to settle for 60K each even though playing gave them an EV of 270K! The fact that the settlement was slightly better than 2nd prize… Continue reading Insane EV Ignorance/Risk Aversion in Average People

Say I conduct a lottery where tomorrow I randomly choose a number between 1 and 100 and split the money from the one dollar tickets I sold among those who chose the winning number (refunds if no winner). Random tickets break even. But someone who pays $100 for 100 different numbers has an edge (unless… Continue reading An Interesting Way to Beat A “No Skill No Edge” Lottery Type Game.

But only if you have a few hundred thousand dollars to invest in different reasonable combinations. (This was another piece of good advice I gave Jeff Yass years after he asked about 8 card stud.) Unfortunately, the opposite is true if you only are betting a few grand and you know a syndicate is betting… Continue reading #48 Means More Horse Race Pick Sixes Than Expected Are Beatable.

Say that the symptoms of a very rare disease show up in a million people, most of whom do not actually have that disease. But because of those symptoms, doctors order a test. It is known that about 5% of those with symptoms are actually infected. Thus, if the test was perfect there would be… Continue reading A Positive Test for a Very Rare Disease is Probably Wrong

Even though that decision will cost you a bet seven times out of 12. Because the other decision is sometimes three bets better than doubling and thus even more profitable. The general principle is that in both gambling and real life, it is not enough to see if a certain decision is “plus EV”. (Similar… Continue reading If You Know the Dealer Has 17 Don’t Double Down on 11

If you think this blackjack proposition favors you, read #23 again. Splitting tens against a nine is a terrible play. But only compared to the alternative of standing. To quickly realize this, you need only remember that Basic Strategy says to double down with ten against a nine even though you can’t take another card.… Continue reading Giving Him Two Tens Which He Must Split Against Your Nine Showing

Not my original idea but worth repeating. Two cars drive towards each other and the first one to swerve loses. In this obviously hypothetical game, the obviously hypothetical solution is to throw your steering wheel out the window, making sure the other guy sees it. There are lots of real-world analogies. No further explanation needed.… Continue reading The Game Theory Solution to the Game of “Chicken”

They don’t have to coincide exactly with the real-world scenario they are shining a light on. Especially if the differences between the hypothetical and what it is modelling are recognized and adjusted for. No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

Not my original idea but an important one. A loan officer who is getting paid back 97% of the time can probably assume that the more risky customers are already 95% or less. Bank officers usually know this, but others to whom this concept applies, often don’t. No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.