Kidnappers, escaped murderers, hostage takers, and others, sometimes find themselves in a situation where there is no difference in punishment whether or not they kill someone. That clearly should not be. Thus, the law should offer some non-trivial incentive for not killing as distasteful as that policy might be. No further explanation needed. All comments… Continue reading Don’t Allow Murder Freerolls.
Blog
Let the (mainly) Efficient Market Work for You.
Related to the previous idea, since the efficient market hypothesis is rarely wrong, it means that if you find a very little-known important fact or idea about a company or sports event, it barely hurts to be ignorant about all the other facts pertaining to them. If your info points to a good bet, you… Continue reading Let the (mainly) Efficient Market Work for You.
Offer Amnesty to Actual Perpetrator If He Confesses in Order to Spring Unjustly Convicted Prisoner Facing Many More Years in Jail.
Faking a confession would of course be a major felony. There are several decent arguments against this idea, (which would have some strict criteria attached to it) but they all pale in comparison to the principle that it is a much graver sin to punish innocents than to fail to punish someone guilty. My forthcoming… Continue reading Offer Amnesty to Actual Perpetrator If He Confesses in Order to Spring Unjustly Convicted Prisoner Facing Many More Years in Jail.
Allow Some Businesses to Buy Out of Disability Rules.
As in my handicapped parking idea, most of the money would be used to help the disabled. The general idea would be that some public businesses that have few disabled customers and are facing large expenses to retrofit, should be allowed to contribute perhaps half that amount to disabled causes to avoid that retrofit. Probably… Continue reading Allow Some Businesses to Buy Out of Disability Rules.
Observations
14. “First Do No Harm” Can Be Harmful. Those readers who are advantage gamblers certainly realize where I am going with this. If the “expected value” of a medical procedure is significantly higher than doing nothing, it is malpractice to settle on doing nothing just because doing something occasionally does harm. Undoubtedly most doctors know… Continue reading Observations
Math/Gambling
9. The Decision Favored to Be Wrong May Be Right. That can happen if that alternative has a much larger upside, a much smaller downside, or if it can be reversed if going poorly while the other decision(s) can’t. 17. Math Questions That Need Almost No Math. Two Examples: #1. We flip coins for a… Continue reading Math/Gambling
The Decision Favored to Be Wrong May Be Right.
That can happen if that alternative has a much larger upside, a much smaller downside, or if it can be reversed if going poorly while the other decision(s) can’t. No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.
Don’t Confuse Clearcut Errors with Bad Errors
Don’t underestimate someone who, perhaps purposely, does something known to be wrong but actually is barely worse than its alternative. Making the two point with 6-4. Reraising early with 55. Other stuff from real life. They may be trying to lull you into making your own much worse mistakes. No further explanation needed. All comments… Continue reading Don’t Confuse Clearcut Errors with Bad Errors
Equip Cars With a “SORRY” Light.
Push a button to light it up when you inadvertently cut someone off, stop too short, etc. Some percentage of road rage incidents will be nipped in the bud. (You can buy something like this right now.) No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.
The Fundamental Theorem of Investing.
A name I made up to express an important idea that many people kind of sort of know intuitively. Don’t risk a lot of money on an investment, bet, or purchase, that appears to be a great deal, unless you can figure out why the people taking the other side are doing it, and why… Continue reading The Fundamental Theorem of Investing.