Blog

Even though that decision will cost you a bet seven times out of 12. Because the other decision is sometimes three bets better than doubling and thus even more profitable. The general principle is that in both gambling and real life, it is not enough to see if a certain decision is “plus EV”. (Similar… Continue reading If You Know the Dealer Has 17 Don’t Double Down on 11

If you think this blackjack proposition favors you, read #23 again. Splitting tens against a nine is a terrible play. But only compared to the alternative of standing. To quickly realize this, you need only remember that Basic Strategy says to double down with ten against a nine even though you can’t take another card.… Continue reading Giving Him Two Tens Which He Must Split Against Your Nine Showing

Not my original idea but worth repeating. Two cars drive towards each other and the first one to swerve loses. In this obviously hypothetical game, the obviously hypothetical solution is to throw your steering wheel out the window, making sure the other guy sees it. There are lots of real-world analogies. No further explanation needed.… Continue reading The Game Theory Solution to the Game of “Chicken”

They don’t have to coincide exactly with the real-world scenario they are shining a light on. Especially if the differences between the hypothetical and what it is modelling are recognized and adjusted for. No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

Not my original idea but an important one. A loan officer who is getting paid back 97% of the time can probably assume that the more risky customers are already 95% or less. Bank officers usually know this, but others to whom this concept applies, often don’t. No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.

2,3, and 12 are no longer automatic losers. Eleven is no longer an automatic winner. They are all “points”. Many think that a pass line bettor is given more than is taken away. But 2 and 12 only move up from zero to 1/7. 3 goes from 0 to 25%. Meanwhile 11 moves down from… Continue reading The Simple Math That Proves “Crapless” Craps is Worse

For instance, it’s five times easier for an 80% shot to go 19 for 20 than 20 for 20. That’s why John Wooden is probably the best coach of all time despite having the best talent. And why no one will ever top Joe Dimaggio’s hitting streak. No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.