An extremely serious error made even by “experts”, that a few people are trying to explain to the world. If a drug on trial beats the 95% criteria, it means the older drug or placebo tested against it did so much worse that there is only a 5% probability that the trial would come out… Continue reading Passing 95% Confidence Criteria Doesn’t Make You 95%
Author: David Sklansky
Math Questions That Need Almost No Math.
Two Examples: #1. We flip coins for a dollar a flip. I start with $2, and you start with one. Algebra tells us that I will bust you twice as often as you bust me. Pure logic points out that this must be so since fair bets must break even if we do this every… Continue reading Math Questions That Need Almost No Math.
Fake Cameras and More Lawyer Nonsense.
There was a car break in, in the parking garage of the smallish casino I consulted for. There were no cameras since it wasn’t deemed worth the cost. But fake cameras would undoubtedly deter most future break ins. Our attorney nixed the idea. Though they would stop most crimes they would be an admission that… Continue reading Fake Cameras and More Lawyer Nonsense.
“First Do No Harm” Can Be Harmful.
Those readers who are advantage gamblers certainly realize where I am going with this. If the “expected value” of a medical procedure is significantly higher than doing nothing, it is malpractice to settle on doing nothing just because doing something occasionally does harm. Undoubtedly most doctors know this. Unfortunately, lawyers pretend like they don’t. No… Continue reading “First Do No Harm” Can Be Harmful.
Allow Institutionalized Ex-Prisoners to Stipulate to Committing a Crime to Get Back In.
Maybe that policy will mean more people will avail of that option. But that’s not a good enough reason to not allow it. Stipulators will not harm others, rather than of being forced to without this policy. Secondly if they come to their senses, probably with the aid of counseling in jail, they can be… Continue reading Allow Institutionalized Ex-Prisoners to Stipulate to Committing a Crime to Get Back In.
Pawnshop Principle.
Can’t claim this as my idea but I include this because it’s important. When it comes time to sell something that you previously bought you should barely consider what you paid for it. Pretend that you don’t even remember and charge what the traffic will bear. If that means selling it for a loss, so… Continue reading Pawnshop Principle.
People as Presents
Twice in my life I arranged for a close relative who my (different) partners had not seen in years, to secretly fly in as a birthday present. I hid them both in the closet and told the recipients that their present was in there. Easily the two best gift reactions I ever experienced. I highly… Continue reading People as Presents
Don’t Allow Murder Freerolls.
Kidnappers, escaped murderers, hostage takers, and others, sometimes find themselves in a situation where there is no difference in punishment whether or not they kill someone. That clearly should not be. Thus, the law should offer some non-trivial incentive for not killing as distasteful as that policy might be. No further explanation needed. All comments… Continue reading Don’t Allow Murder Freerolls.
Let the (mainly) Efficient Market Work for You.
Related to the previous idea, since the efficient market hypothesis is rarely wrong, it means that if you find a very little-known important fact or idea about a company or sports event, it barely hurts to be ignorant about all the other facts pertaining to them. If your info points to a good bet, you… Continue reading Let the (mainly) Efficient Market Work for You.
Offer Amnesty to Actual Perpetrator If He Confesses in Order to Spring Unjustly Convicted Prisoner Facing Many More Years in Jail.
Faking a confession would of course be a major felony. There are several decent arguments against this idea, (which would have some strict criteria attached to it) but they all pale in comparison to the principle that it is a much graver sin to punish innocents than to fail to punish someone guilty. My forthcoming… Continue reading Offer Amnesty to Actual Perpetrator If He Confesses in Order to Spring Unjustly Convicted Prisoner Facing Many More Years in Jail.