If your picks are coin flips my expected profit is $2.50 if you bet five games and 5 if you bet ten games with no forgiveness. But capping your losses at 55 (rather than the normal 110) still results in an EV of about 4 for me. In other words if you planned to bet… Continue reading Lay Me 11-10 on Ten Football Games and You Can Beat Me for 100 While I Cap Your Loss at 55.
Author: David Sklansky
A Dumb Analogy Between Poker and Stock Trading.
I sometimes see an article talking about how pro poker players can make good stock traders because they can take losses when they realize the game was tougher than they thought. They don’t try to “get even”. But that strategy does not extend to buying stocks because your losses, while similarly implying that your initial… Continue reading A Dumb Analogy Between Poker and Stock Trading.
People Who Resist Adding Math to Their Decision Making Invariably Can’t Do the Required Math.
#68 above is just one of a myriad of situations where an endeavor that doesn’t usually require math sometimes does. But if the person in charge of that endeavor (e.g. a football coach) isn’t good at math, it is my experience that he or she tries to find a reason why the mathematical conclusion is… Continue reading People Who Resist Adding Math to Their Decision Making Invariably Can’t Do the Required Math.
Might There Be Genes That Control How Likely Other Genes Tend to Mutate?
Since I first wrote this, scientists have discovered a syndrome similar to my speculation. I originally thought of this because some biological changes seem to occur faster than standard evolution would appear to predict. But if there was a sort of “second derivative genes” that kicked in when the environment was quickly changing, that could… Continue reading Might There Be Genes That Control How Likely Other Genes Tend to Mutate?
Don’t Fall For “Fiduciary, No Commission, Only Make Money When You Do” Commercials.
Do I really have to explain that this method of charging you for investment advice, in no way implies that their recommendations have a positive EV, except for them? No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.
Soak the Rich for Little Perks
Stuff like avoiding lines, using car-pool lanes by themselves, or the handicapped parking idea that is #1 on this list. The key to making this work without a major backlash would be that the price charged would be high enough so that the average person would not feel bad that he couldn’t afford it himself,… Continue reading Soak the Rich for Little Perks
Even Better Lemons to Lemonade Story
No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.
Lemons to Lemonade Anecdote.
No further explanation needed. All comments welcome.
NFL and College Football Teams that Score a Touchdown with Little Time Left Should Go for Two When Down by Eight.
Even if their kicker is 100%, it’s still the right play if they are 40% to succeed with the two-point conversion attempt. You assume you will score another touchdown (and that you are even money in overtime) and go for one the second time if and only if the two-point try worked. I’ll show the… Continue reading NFL and College Football Teams that Score a Touchdown with Little Time Left Should Go for Two When Down by Eight.
Emotions Depend More on “Acceleration” Than “Speed”
I sometimes see an article talking about how pro poker players can make good stock traders because they can take losses when they realize the game was tougher than they thought. They don’t try to “get even”. But that strategy does not extend to buying stocks because your losses, while similarly implying that your initial… Continue reading Emotions Depend More on “Acceleration” Than “Speed”