#48 Means More Horse Race Pick Sixes Than Expected Are Beatable.

But only if you have a few hundred thousand dollars to invest in different reasonable combinations. (This was another piece of good advice I gave Jeff Yass years after he asked about 8 card stud.) Unfortunately, the opposite is true if you only are betting a few grand and you know a syndicate is betting also. (Stanford Wong got this wrong in his book.)

Stanford Wong, who rarely makes an error in his gambling books, was trying to assuage the fears of smaller gamblers who were shooting for Pick Six type jackpots when there were probably big betting syndicates doing the same thing. He wrote that if the syndicates had an edge betting on thousands of combinations, then it meant that a smaller number of combinations that was a subset of the syndicate’s bets, must also have an edge. (If a thousand numbers have an average of 12, a subset of them must average 12 or more.) But he was wrong. Because if you bet on one of those combinations you cut down the payoff. Maybe even by half if there are only two tickets. The syndicate however is not hurt because its unduplicated tickets increase their EV.
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